New Delhi: India is preparing for one of the biggest economic and energy transitions in human history. Over the next five decades, major changes are expected to take place in the country’s power system, industries, transport networks and mineral supply chains, as India tries to meet its two major national goals, becoming a developed country by 2047 and achieving net-zero emissions by 2070.
This is the main message that has emerged from the new series of NITI Aayog’s report ‘Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero’. In this, sector-by-sector pathways for power, industry, transport and important minerals have been inspected. Together, these studies paint a comprehensive picture of how India’s development and climate goals can be achieved simultaneously, and what major changes will be required to achieve this.
Electricity will become the backbone of India’s development
At the heart of India’s net-zero strategy is a massive increase in electricity use. Regional Insights: Energy Demand Projections show that India’s total electricity demand could grow more than eight times faster than current values ​​by 2070 as the economy transitions away from fossil fuels.
In the Net Zero Scenario, electricity use is projected to increase from approximately 1541 TWh (Terawatt-hour) in 2023/24 to approximately 13000 TWh in 2070. Even under the current policy scenario, electricity use will exceed 9700 TWh, reflecting major structural changes in the economy.
Per capita electricity consumption, an important indicator of living standards, is projected to increase rapidly from the current level of about 1400 KWh to between 7000 KWh and 10,000 KWh by 2070, close to today’s projected levels in developed countries such as France and South Korea.
Under the net-zero pathway, the share of electricity in final energy use could increase from about 21% today to about 60%, making electricity the most important driver of economic growth and decarbonization.
Renewable energy will dominate India’s power mix
To meet this increase in demand while reducing emissions, there will be a complete change in the way electricity is generated in India.
Under the net-zero pathway, total installed power capacity, including captive power plants, is projected to increase from about 523 GW today to 6,800–7,350 GW by 2070. Most of this increase will come from renewable energy.
Solar power alone could grow to 3,250–5,500 GW, while onshore wind capacity could cross 1,000 GW, supported by 50–70 GW of offshore wind. As a result, non-fossil sources could account for 98% of installed capacity by 2070, compared to about 40% today.
India has already made rapid progress. By mid-2025, more than 50% of capacity deployed at utility scale will come from non-fossil sources, allowing it to meet its new climate commitments five years earlier than currently planned. By December 2025, renewable energy capacity will reach approximately 258 GW and India will become the world’s fourth largest market for renewable energy.
Apart from this, the role of nuclear energy will also be important. Installed nuclear capacity is projected to increase from 8.8 GW today to more than 300 GW by 2070, with small modular reactors (SMRs) providing greater flexibility and greater opportunities for deployment at a distributed level.
The report estimates that battery energy storage systems (BESS) will grow from very low levels today to 2,500–3,000 GW by 2070. Pumped hydro storage capacity can increase to 150–165 GW.
Nuclear energy is also expected to play an important role. Installed nuclear capacity could grow from 8.8 GW today to more than 300 GW by 2070, with small modular reactors (SMRs) allowing more flexible and decentralized deployment.
Coal consumption has declined relatively rapidly but is expected to continue in the short to medium term to maintain grid reliability, although the report cautions against prolonged carbon lock-in.
Industry: Growth without carbon lock-in
India’s industrial sector, which is vital for jobs, exports and growth, is facing another challenge. Currently it accounts for about 24% of India’s greenhouse gas emissions (except electricity).
Regional Insights: According to industry, India’s GDP could reach US$30 trillion by 2047, leading to manifold increase in demand for steel, cement and aluminium.
Steel production could reach 624 million tonnes by 2050 and 821 million tonnes by 2070. Cement production could increase to about 2 billion tonnes by 2070, while aluminum production could reach 38 million tonnes.
By the middle of the century, India’s per capita material consumption is expected to be equal to that of today’s developed economies – not because of excess, but to meet housing, infrastructure and manufacturing needs.
Electrification, hydrogen and CCUS will reduce emissions
Today, 83% of industrial energy demand is met by fossil fuels. Under the net zero scenario, this will decline sharply to 26% by 2070.
Electricity use will change in the future
The share of electricity in industrial energy consumption will increase from 16% today to 55% in 2070, mainly due to the need to generate clean electricity. Additionally, on the path to reaching net zero emissions, total industrial energy consumption will be less than today’s total energy consumption because of increased efficiency.
Green hydrogen will be an important option for those industries which are difficult to scale down. By 2050, hydrogen demand could reach 22 million tonnes and 42 million tonnes in 2070, much higher than today under current policies.
Carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) is also an essential tool to achieve net zero emissions. India can capture about 1 billion tonnes of CO2 every year by 2070 using CCUS, mostly from cement, steel and petroleum refining.
Lower emissions from transport; greater mobility
The transport sector is responsible for about 20% of final energy consumption and about 10% of total emissions. There is a lot of difference between what will happen under the current policy and what will happen under other proposed policies.
Under the first option, transportation is estimated to consume 336 million tonnes of oil-equivalent (Mtoe) in 2070. Under the net zero scenario, this falls to about 192–200 Mtoe despite increased passenger and freight traffic.
In the future, this transition will reflect global efforts to reach net zero emissions through near-universal adoption of zero-emission vehicles, large-scale public transportation development (including rail-based freight), and compact urban design.
By 2070, oil will account for only 21% of transport energy (up from 60% under normal circumstances), while electricity will account for 45%, biofuels will account for about 20%, and green hydrogen will power shipping, aviation and long-haul freight.
Public and shared transport modes account for about 60% of passenger trips, while the share of freight trains increases to 30%. Private car ownership stabilizes at 200 cars for every 1,000 people, which is lower than the current policy.
Vital Minerals: The Hidden Blockade
Solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles (EVs) are all driving the growing global demand for minerals. In fact, according to the Critical Minerals Assessment, India will need 169 million tonnes of minerals for a clean energy transition on a net-zero pathway by 2070, which is 51% more than what is needed under the current policy.
More than two-thirds of this demand will come after 2050, which means there is a strong need for pre-planning, even though peak demand will occur much later.
By 2050, demand for copper will exceed 20 million tonnes and demand for graphite will exceed 14 million tonnes; Batteries and EVs will increase this growth. Of the total mineral demand, EVs will account for 55% and energy storage will account for another 5% of the total demand. Mineral demand for solar energy sources is 31% (of total), while most of the rare earth minerals are required for wind energy (used in permanent magnets).