T20 World Cup 2026 has now reached an exciting turn. The last few matches of the Super-8 stage are left. The battle to reach the semi-finals has become interesting. How difficult this battle is can be gauged from the fact that after six matches of the Super-8 round, till now only one team has been able to reach the semi-finals. England’s seat has been confirmed. At the same time, there is competition between five teams for three other places. No team has yet qualified for the semi-finals from Super-8 Group-1, whereas the England team has qualified from Group-2.
What will be India-West Indies virtual knockout?
Team India is also struggling in the Super-8 round. In fact, India had a very bad start in the Super-8 stage. The crushing defeat of 76 runs against South Africa has put the Indian team in a difficult situation. The net run rate of the team led by captain Suryakumar has fallen to -3.800. There are two big matches on Thursday i.e. 26th February. First match South Africa vs West Indies from 3 pm and then India vs Zimbabwe from 7 pm. The picture of Group-1 will become clear to a great extent only from the South Africa vs West Indies match.
At present the mark sheet of Group-1 and Group-2 is as follows
Team Match Win Loss Inconclusive Points Net Run Rate
West Indies 1 1 0 0 2 +5.350
The. Africa 1 1 0 0 2 +3.800
India 1 0 1 0 0 -3.800
Zimbabwe 1 0 1 0 0 -5.350
How can India reach the semi-finals?
Equation No. 1: D. Africa beats West Indies
If South Africa beats West Indies and India beats Zimbabwe, the African team will reach the semi-finals with four points. Then the next match between India and West Indies will become a virtual quarterfinal. The winner of that match will advance directly to the semi-finals, regardless of the net run rate. This is the simplest path for India, keep winning and move forward.
Equation number-2: Net run rate will become the real game
If West Indies beats South Africa and India wins over Zimbabwe, the West Indies will have four points, while India and South Africa will have two points each. In such a situation, India will have to register a big win against West Indies, so that its net run rate can improve. Also, India will have to hope that Zimbabwe beats South Africa or South Africa wins by a very small margin, so that the net run rate does not increase much and becomes better than India. Here the semi-final ticket will completely depend on mathematics and run rate. This path is difficult.
Equation No. 3: Defeat means almost out
If India loses to Zimbabwe, its position will become extremely weak. Although technically there will be a chance, it will have to defeat West Indies by a huge margin and will have to depend on the results of the remaining matches. It is clear that the match against Zimbabwe is like ‘do or die’ for India. After this, India will have to hope that South Africa beats both West Indies and Zimbabwe. Then only India’s victory over West Indies by a big margin will open the way. In such a situation, South Africa will have six points, while India, West Indies and Zimbabwe will have two points each. Then the place in the semi-finals will be given to the team whose Net Run Rate (NRR) is the best.
Pakistan’s condition in Group-2 is tenuous
On the other hand, Pakistan’s path in Group-2 has become even more difficult. New Zealand strengthened its semi-final claim by defeating Sri Lanka by 61 runs. In this match, Rachin Ravindra took four wickets for 27 runs and bowled brilliantly. England has already reached the semi-finals from this group.
Current points table of Super-8 Group-2
Team Match Win Loss Inconclusive Points Net Run Rate
England (Q) 2 2 0 0 4 +1.491
New Zealand 2 1 0 1 3 +3.050
Pakistan 2 0 1 1 1 -0.461
Sri Lanka (E) 2 0 2 0 0 -2.800
How can Pakistan reach the semi-finals?
Equation No. 1: Both Dua and Dum are necessary
Pakistan’s last match is against Sri Lanka. If Pakistan wins, it will get three points. However, mere victory over Sri Lanka is not enough for Pakistan. If New Zealand loses to England by a close margin then Pakistan will have to win over Sri Lanka by 70+ runs. Only then will its net run rate be better than New Zealand. In this situation, Kiwis and Pakistan will have three points each and the decision will be based on net run rate. If Pakistan team wins against Sri Lanka by a close margin then they will have to pray that New Zealand loses to England by a big margin (around 60-70+ runs). In such a situation, both the teams will be on three points each and then the decision will be taken on the basis of net run rate.
Equation No. 2: Small mistake and out
If Pakistan loses to Sri Lanka, it will be out immediately. Then no equation will work. Even if New Zealand beats England, Pakistan’s journey will end before they face Sri Lanka. Even if the New Zealand vs England match is washed out by rain, the road will be closed for Pakistan.
Importance of every run
Now the value of every ball, every run and every wicket has increased in the Super-8 stage. This phase is also a test of mental strength for both India and Pakistan. India will have to make a big improvement in its performance, while Pakistan will need luck along with its victory. The coming two days will decide which team will cross the threshold of the semi-finals and whose dream will remain unfulfilled.